Markets / ECB Rate
🌍 Geographic viewECB RateCloses 23 March 2026YES resolved
Will the ECB hold rates at 4.50% in June 2025?
66%
Skill-Weighted Probability
LMSR 51%
Forecasters
2
↑ 2 YES · 0 NO
Volume
€5
2 trades
24h Velocity
-16.1pp
probability shift
Liquidity (b)
300.2
thin
Probability history
YESNO
24h Velocity
0.0ppstable
Data Quality
0/100
Place a forecast
Market is settled — trading closed
Shares pay €1.00 at settlement · 2% platform fee
Recent trades
YESTest Forecaster@ 50%
€4.9029d ago
YESCGN_deneme@ 73%
€15.00306d ago
Market information
CategoryECB Rate
Created16 March 2026
Closes23 March 2026
Settlement sourceECB Press Release
Min. trade€10
SponsoredNo
View official source →Consensus signals
SWP (skill-weighted)66%
LMSR market price51%
Expert forecasters73%
Novice forecasters50%
EDI (expertise divergence)0.230
24h velocity-16.1pp
Data Quality Score16 / 100
Forecaster breakdown
2
forecasting YES
0
forecasting NO
Brier score leaders on this market
CGN_denemeYESBrier 0.07
Test ForecasterYESBrier 0.25